Combined models for pre- and post-treatment longitudinal biomarker data: an application to CD4 counts in HIV-patients.

BACKGROUND: There has been some debate in the literature as to whether baseline values of a measurement of interest at treatment initiation should be treated as an outcome variable as part of a model for longitudinal change or instead used as a predictive variable with respect to the response to treatment. We develop a new approach that involves a combined statistical model for all pre- and post-treatment observations of the biomarker of interest, in which the characteristics of response to treatment are treated as a function of the 'true' value of the biomarker at treatment initiation. METHODS: The modelling strategy developed is applied to a dataset of CD4 counts from patients in the UK Register of HIV Seroconverters (UKR) cohort who initiated highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). The post-HAART recovery in CD4 counts for each individual is modelled as following an asymptotic curve in which the speed of response to treatment and long-term maximum are functions of the 'true' underlying CD4 count at initiation of HAART and the time elapsed since seroconversion. Following previous research in this field, the models developed incorporate non-stationary stochastic process components, and the possibility of between-patient differences in variability over time was also considered. RESULTS: A variety of novel models were successfully fitted to the UKR dataset. These provide reinforcing evidence for findings that have previously been reported in the literature, in particular that there is a strong positive relationship between CD4 count at initiation of HAART and the long-term maximum in each patient, but also reveal potentially important features of the data that would not have been easily identified by other methods of analysis. CONCLUSION: Our proposed methodology provides a unified framework for the analysis of pre- and post-treatment longitudinal biomarker data that will be useful for epidemiological investigations and simulations in this context. The approach developed allows use of all relevant data from observational cohorts in which many patients are missing pre-treatment measurements and in which the timing and number of observations vary widely between patients

Fractional Brownian motion and multivariate-t models for longitudinal biomedical data, with application to CD4 counts in HIV-patients

Longitudinal data are widely analysed using linear mixed models, with 'random slopes' models particularly common. However, when modelling, for example, longitudinal pre-treatment CD4 cell counts in HIV-positive patients, the incorporation of non-stationary stochastic processes such as Brownian motion has been shown to lead to a more biologically plausible model and a substantial improvement in model fit. In this article, we propose two further extensions. Firstly, we propose the addition of a fractional Brownian motion component, and secondly, we generalise the model to follow a multivariate-t distribution. These extensions are biologically plausible, and each demonstrated substantially improved fit on application to example data from the Concerted Action on SeroConversion to AIDS and Death in Europe study. We also propose novel procedures for residual diagnostic plots that allow such models to be assessed. Cohorts of patients were simulated from the previously reported and newly developed models in order to evaluate differences in predictions made for the timing of treatment initiation under different clinical management strategies. A further simulation study was performed to demonstrate the substantial biases in parameter estimates of the mean slope of CD4 decline with time that can occur when random slopes models are applied in the presence of censoring because of treatment initiation, with the degree of bias found to depend strongly on the treatment initiation rule applied. Our findings indicate that researchers should consider more complex and flexible models for the analysis of longitudinal biomarker data, particularly when there are substantial missing data, and that the parameter estimates from random slopes models must be interpreted with caution. © 2015 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd

Anaemia and blood transfusion in African children presenting to hospital with severe febrile illness

BACKGROUND: Severe anaemia in children is a leading cause of hospital admission and a major cause of mortality in sub-Saharan Africa, yet there are limited published data on blood transfusion in this vulnerable group. METHODS: We present data from a large controlled trial of fluid resuscitation (Fluid Expansion As Supportive Therapy (FEAST) trial) on the prevalence, clinical features, and transfusion management of anaemia in children presenting to hospitals in three East African countries with serious febrile illness (predominantly malaria and/or sepsis) and impaired peripheral perfusion. RESULTS: Of 3,170 children in the FEAST trial, 3,082 (97%) had baseline haemoglobin (Hb) measurement, 2,346/3,082 (76%) were anaemic (Hb <10 g/dL), and 33% severely anaemic (Hb <5 g/dL). Prevalence of severe anaemia varied from 12% in Kenya to 41% in eastern Uganda. 1,387/3,082 (45%) children were transfused (81% within 8 hours). Adherence to WHO transfusion guidelines was poor. Among severely anaemic children who were not transfused, 52% (54/103) died within 8 hours, and 90% of these deaths occurred within 2.5 hours of randomisation. By 24 hours, 128/1,002 (13%) severely anaemic children had died, compared to 36/501 (7%) and 71/843 (8%) of those with moderate and mild anaemia, respectively. Among children without severe hypotension who were randomised to receive fluid boluses of 0.9% saline or albumin, mortality was increased (10.6% and 10.5%, respectively) compared to controls (7.2%), regardless of admission Hb level. Repeat transfusion varied from ≤2% in Kenya/Tanzania to 6 to 13% at the four Ugandan centres. Adverse reactions to blood were rare (0.4%). CONCLUSIONS: Severe anaemia complicates one third of childhood admissions with serious febrile illness to hospitals in East Africa, and is associated with increased mortality. A high proportion of deaths occurred within 2.5 hours of admission, emphasizing the need for rapid recognition and prompt blood transfusion. Adherence to current WHO transfusion guidelines was poor. The high rates of re-transfusion suggest that 20 mL/kg whole blood or 10 mL/kg packed cells may undertreat a significant proportion of anaemic children. Future evaluation of the impact of a larger volume of transfused blood and optimum transfusion management of children with Hb of <6 g/dL is warranted. Please see related article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12916-014-0248-5. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12916-014-0246-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

WHO guidelines on fluid resuscitation in children: missing the FEAST data.

The World Health Organization recommendations on management of common childhood illnesses affect the lives of millions of children admitted to hospital worldwide. Its latest guidelines,1 released in May 2013, continue to recommend rapid fluid resuscitation for septic shock, even though the only large controlled trial of this treatment (Fluid Expansion as a Supportive Treatment (FEAST) found that it increased the risk of death in African children.2 A subsequent systematic review of bolus resuscitation in children with shock resulting from severe infection also did not support its use.3 Failure to take this evidence into account is not consistent with WHO’s commitment to systematically and transparently assess evidence using the GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation) process when producing guidelines and could endanger the lives of children

Anti-influenza hyperimmune intravenous immunoglobulin for adults with influenza A or B infection (FLU-IVIG): a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Since the 1918 influenza pandemic, non-randomised studies and small clinical trials have suggested that convalescent plasma or anti-influenza hyperimmune intravenous immunoglobulin (hIVIG) might have clinical benefit for patients with influenza infection, but definitive data do not exist. We aimed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of hIVIG in a randomised controlled trial. METHODS: This randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial was planned for 45 hospitals in Argentina, Australia, Denmark, Greece, Mexico, Spain, Thailand, UK, and the USA over five influenza seasons from 2013-14 to 2017-18. Adults (≥18 years of age) were admitted for hospital treatment with laboratory-confirmed influenza A or B infection and were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive standard care plus either a single 500-mL infusion of high-titre hIVIG (0·25 g/kg bodyweight, 24·75 g maximum; hIVIG group) or saline placebo (placebo group). Eligible patients had a National Early Warning score of 2 points or greater at the time of screening and their symptoms began no more than 7 days before randomisation. Pregnant and breastfeeding women were excluded, as well as any patients for whom the treatment would present a health risk. Separate randomisation schedules were generated for each participating clinical site using permuted block randomisation. Treatment assignments were obtained using a web-based application by the site pharmacist who then masked the solution for infusion. Patients and investigators were masked to study treatment. The primary endpoint was a six-category ordinal outcome of clinical status at day 7, ranging in severity from death to resumption of normal activities after discharge. The choice of day 7 was based on haemagglutination inhibition titres from a pilot study. It was analysed with a proportional odds model, using all six categories to estimate a common odds ratio (OR). An OR greater than 1 indicated that, for a given category, patients in the hIVIG group were more likely to be in a better category than those in the placebo group. Prespecified primary analyses for safety and efficacy were based on patients who received an infusion and for whom eligibility could be confirmed. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02287467. FINDINGS: 313 patients were enrolled in 34 sites between Dec 11, 2014, and May 28, 2018. We also used data from 16 patients enrolled at seven of the 34 sites during the pilot study between Jan 15, 2014, and April 10, 2014. 168 patients were randomly assigned to the hIVIG group and 161 to the placebo group. 21 patients were excluded (12 from the hIVIG group and 9 from the placebo group) because they did not receive an infusion or their eligibility could not be confirmed. Thus, 308 were included in the primary analysis. hIVIG treatment produced a robust rise in haemagglutination inhibition titres against influenza A and smaller rises in influenza B titres. Based on the proportional odds model, the OR on day 7 was 1·25 (95% CI 0·79-1·97; p=0·33). In subgroup analyses for the primary outcome, the OR in patients with influenza A was 0·94 (0·55-1·59) and was 3·19 (1·21-8·42) for those with influenza B (interaction p=0·023). Through 28 days of follow-up, 47 (30%) of 156 patients in the hIVIG group and in 45 (30%) of 152 patients in the placebo group had the composite safety outcome of death, a serious adverse event, or a grade 3 or 4 adverse event (hazard ratio [HR] 1·06, 95% CI 0·70-1·60; p=0·79). Six (4%) patients in the hIVIG group and five (3%) in the placebo group died, but these deaths were not necessarily related to treatment. INTERPRETATION: When administered alongside standard care (most commonly oseltamivir), hIVIG was not superior to placebo for adults hospitalised with influenza infection. By contrast with our prespecified subgroup hypothesis that hIVIG would result in more favourable responses in patients with influenza A than B, we found the opposite effect. The clinical benefit of hIVIG for patients with influenza B is supported by antibody affinity analyses, but confirmation is warranted. FUNDING: NIAID and NIH. Partial support was provided by the Medical Research Council (MRC_UU_12023/23) and the Danish National Research Foundation

Increased HIV Incidence in Men Who Have Sex with Men Despite High Levels of ART-Induced Viral Suppression: Analysis of an Extensively Documented Epidemic

Background: There is interest in expanding ART to prevent HIV transmission, but in the group with the highest levels of ART use, men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM), numbers of new infections diagnosed each year have not decreased as ART coverage has increased for reasons which remain unclear. Methods: We analysed data on the HIV-epidemic in MSM in the UK from a range of sources using an individual-based simulation model. Model runs using parameter sets found to result in good model fit were used to infer changes in HIV-incidence and risk behaviour. Results: HIV-incidence has increased (estimated mean incidence 0.30/100 person-years 1990–1997, 0.45/100 py 1998–2010), associated with a modest (26%) rise in condomless sex. We also explored counter-factual scenarios: had ART not been introduced, but the rise in condomless sex had still occurred, then incidence 2006–2010 was 68% higher; a policy of ART initiation in all diagnosed with HIV from 2001 resulted in 32% lower incidence; had levels of HIV testing been higher (68% tested/year instead of 25%) incidence was 25% lower; a combination of higher testing and ART at diagnosis resulted in 62% lower incidence; cessation of all condom use in 2000 resulted in a 424% increase in incidence. In 2010, we estimate that undiagnosed men, the majority in primary infection, accounted for 82% of new infections. Conclusion: A rise in HIV-incidence has occurred in MSM in the UK despite an only modest increase in levels of condomless sex and high coverage of ART. ART has almost certainly exerted a limiting effect on incidence. Much higher rates of HIV testing combined with initiation of ART at diagnosis would be likely to lead to substantial reductions in HIV incidence. Increased condom use should be promoted to avoid the erosion of the benefits of ART and to prevent other serious sexually transmitted infections

Design and implementation of an international, multi-arm, multi-stage platform master protocol for trials of novel SARS-CoV-2 antiviral agents: Therapeutics for Inpatients with COVID-19 (TICO/ACTIV-3)

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Safe and effective therapies for COVID-19 are urgently needed. In order to meet this need, the Accelerating COVID-19 Therapeutic Interventions and Vaccines public-private partnership initiated the Therapeutics for Inpatients with COVID-19. Therapeutics for Inpatients with COVID-19 is a multi-arm, multi-stage platform master protocol, which facilitates the rapid evaluation of the safety and efficacy of novel candidate antiviral therapeutic agents for adults hospitalized with COVID-19. Five agents have so far entered the protocol, with rapid answers already provided for three of these. Other agents are expected to enter the protocol throughout 2021. This protocol contains a number of key design and implementation features that, along with challenges faced by the protocol team, are presented and discussed. METHODS: Three clinical trial networks, encompassing a global network of clinical sites, participated in the protocol development and implementation. Therapeutics for Inpatients with COVID-19 utilizes a multi-arm, multi-stage design with an agile and robust approach to futility and safety evaluation at 300 patients enrolled, with subsequent expansion to full sample size and an expanded target population if the agent shows an acceptable safety profile and evidence of efficacy. Rapid recruitment to multiple agents is enabled through the sharing of placebo, the confining of agent-specific information to protocol appendices, and modular consent forms. In collaboration with the Food and Drug Administration, a thorough safety data collection and Data and Safety Monitoring Board schedule was developed for the study of potential therapeutic agents with limited in-human data in hospitalized patients with COVID-19. RESULTS: As of 8 August 2021, five agents have entered the Therapeutics for Inpatients with COVID-19 master protocol and a total of 1909 participants have been randomized to one of these agents or matching placebo. There were a number of challenges faced by the study team that needed to be overcome in order to successfully implement Therapeutics for Inpatients with COVID-19 across a global network of sites. These included ensuring drug supply and reliable recruitment allowing for changing infection rates across the global network of sites, the need to balance the collection of data and samples without overburdening clinical staff and obtaining regulatory approvals across a global network of sites. CONCLUSION: Through a robust multi-network partnership, the Therapeutics for Inpatients with COVID-19 protocol has been successfully used across a global network of sites for rapid generation of efficacy data on multiple novel antiviral agents. The protocol design and implementation features used in this protocol, and the approaches to address challenges, will have broader applicability. Mechanisms to facilitate improved communication and harmonization among country-specific regulatory bodies are required to achieve the full potential of this approach in dealing with a global outbreak

A Kinetic Study of Acrylamide/ Acrylic Acid Copolymerization

Homo- and co-polymers of acrylamide (AAm) and acrylic acid (or acrylate salt) (AA) or methacrylic acid (MAA)) are important classes of water-soluble polymers due to their numerous applications in fields such as super absorbents, additives in cosmetics, membrane technology, waste-water treatment and oil field operations. These polymers are generally made by free radical polymerization. For copolymerization reactions it is extremely important to know the details of reaction kinetics in order to ascertain the kinetic effects of different reaction parameters, which ultimately dictate final copolymer composition, microstructure and properties. The reactivity ratios for copolymerization of AAm and AA have been shown to be dependent on pH and they also change with reaction solvent. The present experimental investigation has been performed to study the kinetics of copolymerization of these monomers in aqueous and alcoholic media by considering factors such as type of initiator and solvent, and pH, in order to determine how they affect the reactivity ratios of these monomers. Reactivity ratios were determined by non-linear least squares (NLLS) and the error-in-variables-model (EVM) techniques and full conversion range kinetic investigations were carried out to confirm these values